Well lets see what we have here, in New Scientist Magazine
Warming in the eastern Pacific Ocean may change wind patterns above the Gulf of Mexico, leading to more hurricanes making landfall in the eastern US
7 April 2023
Hurricane Florence nearing North Carolina in 2018
NOAA via Getty Images
My comment right off the bat. Misleading title. The East coast includes the northeast, This is for the southeast US centered on Florida where compared to the 30s and 40s, up until recently there has not been the number of hits per decade. So right off the bat. there is a problem where the authors do not acknowledge what USED TO HAPPEN.
Back to the article
The winds that steer hurricanes may shift due to climate change, sending more storms over the eastern and southern coasts of the US. The change in wind patterns – driven by warmer waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean – could also make the storms stronger.
Each year, around 10 hurricanes form over the western Atlantic Ocean, but only two on average make landfall over the eastern US.
My comment. That is plainly wrong. We don’t average 2 hurricane hits a year on the EAST COAST. Since the start of the warm era (mid-90s) its less than 1 hurricane per season on the east coast and 1 total north of Hatteras though we all know Sandy should have been counted making it 2 ( the other was landfall Irene)he landfall in Jersey counted as a hurricane but not near JFK airport
Back to the story
Whether or not they do is decided by large-scale wind patterns around each storm. Models of how winds would change under various climate change scenarios have produced mixed results, and the limited record of actual storms making landfall shows no obvious trends of changes with warming so far.
Karthik Balaguru at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory in Washington state and his colleagues have now used the latest climate models to simulate hurricane paths with warming under a high-emissions scenario.
My comment
Oh Joy Model simulation Cmon really
They project that the number of hurricanes making landfall over the eastern US would increase by around 37 percent by the end of the century, with the greatest increase over the Gulf of Mexico and the US east coast south of Virginia. They found there would be a small decrease in hurricanes making landfall further north.
My comment.
I see we have switched horses. We have gone from the EAST COAST to the Gulf of Mexico and the SE coast. Isn’t that special?. And the decrease already observed in the northeast apparently is going to continue. Wait how is that possible, Since the only place you see landfalls ( with rare exceptions) is on New England and Long Island and they have had 0 since 1992 how does it decrease?
New math I guess since we can get less than 0. Hurricanes 1938-1991 in a colder time with much less co2 hit the NE on average once every 6.7 years.
Back to their article
Warming Atlantic waters are known to increase the intensity of storms. The researchers found that storms could also become more powerful due to a projected decrease in wind shear – the difference between wind direction and speed at the surface and higher up – which can break up storms.
My comment
This is not necessarily true if YOU ARE LOOKING AT THE TOTAL POWER OF THE STORM. Since we have seen one storm after another weaken unless they develop within 2 days of the coast, associated SLP changes due to a warming world are a counter. You can’t just assume water is warm,hurricanes are stronger. I do suspect more rapid feedback of smaller systems coming to the coast, but the larger storm. Florence, Matthew, Floyd Irene etc. all have weakened off their peak
Now comes the caveat. Which I am glad was acknowledged:
But the jury is still out on whether this will actually happen, says Jhordanne Jones at Purdue University in Indiana. “A lot of their work here is still very theoretical,” she says.
For one, the researchers assumed that the number of hurricanes that form each year would remain the same with climate change, but climate models differ on this, says Thomas Knutson at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
The researchers also found that warming in the eastern Pacific is the primary mechanism behind the wind pattern changes projected by the models. The warmer water amplifies an atmospheric wave of high and low pressure, changing the circulation over the Gulf of Mexico such that wind more often blows towards the southern coast of the US.
My comment
So where are the colder winters? Right we know that a warm east pac results in the colder eastern winters. No comment there?
Story::
But climate models also differ on what will happen in the eastern Pacific, and have largely failed to match observations in recent decades, says Jones. Projections are complicated by challenges in modelling ocean dynamics and fine-grained phenomena such as changes in cloud cover, she says. “These signals, these oscillations, these cycles – we don’t quite know how they will respond.”
My comment. So the climate models you use to write the story have not been working? Then why the heck are we writing this based on that? Except to use the headline to create more propaganda
Story”
Depending on which model the team used to project the future of the eastern Pacific, the number of hurricanes making landfall increased between 7 and 67 per cent, says Balaguru. “That adds to the level of uncertainty,” he says.
My comment
I think that last line says about enough. I am sure if it had decreased, this never would have been written
Now look at this headline ( Folks there is so much coming out every day you can’t keep up with it. All of it shares in common a push to convince people we are in a climate apocalypse
From the AP
Well it better dry out, look at the last 10 years
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you would think a reporter would go and look But that is not how it works today.
But as long as I can, when I can ( I do have a job you know). I will try to counter this with the whole truth, not half the story. Obviously, the other half of the story when it comes to climate shines a light that has to be hidden for an agenda meant to disrupt and destroy our way of life
* This article was originally published here
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