The hurricane forecast dilemma and warming

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Our Hurricane forecast has been out for February with the numbers game that everyone plays and I think means next to nothing, It is where they are going, not how many that is key, Our IMPACT forecast will be on here early the week of the 9th and will show this may be the classic year for showing why that is the case.

There was great reason in past years to write off the hurricane season when El Ninos showed up. The Atlantic was darn cold and the Tropical Pacific warming meant a giant sucking sound of easterlies would roar through the main development regions with high shear . Since most of the devastating hurricanes came out of that area in the past, predict a lower-than-normal MDR season and you assume the US is in good shape. However, even in some of those years, majors manage to hit the coast.

What I did for you here is outline the evolution of stronger or greater El Ninos since 1957. The huge problem is the distorted warming of the Atlantic is a counterweight to the El Nino as far as enhanced Easterlies. We are treading in new territory.

1957

we had Audrey Early and not much beyond

1965

Betsy managed to hit

1972

no major hits

1982

Notice how cold the water still is globally

No big hits

1987

No big hits

Now I am going to put on my co2 question hat.

There is little change from 1957

to 1991

In 1991 it was still quite cold

Bob came a calling

Yet the rapid rise of co2 began in the 1950s

Le Chetiliers would mean that the countering effect of the system would have begun immediately as its a principle that implies diminishing feedback, not increasing

Yet you can also see SSTs. rose little in that time, Co 2 could not be affecting temperatures.

Underwater Volcanic activity began its increase in the 80s with the more rapid seismic spreading taking off in the 90s

Given the implications of Geothermal input to such a massive source of heat, why is this not a consideration? I will not continue pushing this point but the rise in Co2 began in the 50s but the real warming did not start till the Geothermal inputs started.

And start they did.

1997

NO major hits

2015

No major US hits, but Joaquin did show up for the Bahamas

How this is pushed off to the side is beyond me?. ( actually its not, but I will be nice)

But now look at this

The SST forecast at this time of the year for 2015

But now

that is trouble. The CFSV2 SLP pattern has a lot of low pressure around over warm water

This is not the normal higher-than-average pressures in the MDR and lower-than-average west of S America

Heck of a lot different than the mean of those seasons. Again think big picture. High pressure all over the Atlantic, low-pressure eastern Pacific, stronger easterlies, increased shear, and more sinking air over the tropical Atlantic.

it still has a negative connotation for the MDR with the lowest pressures out of the MDR. but that is also an indication to me that there will simply be more activity north of the MDR, at least normal and perhaps above

Precip forecast

precip is much wetter from Africa to  Florida than the standard El Nino means which are dry ( below)

500b

We have a pattern that actually FAVORS  development but more between 25 and 35 north  rather than in the deep tropics

In the mean years, we do not see the negatives showing up further south, so again a distortion to the north

So we are in no man’s land. The more I study this, the more I am hoping that people try to step back and look at this as to what the source is. Because as you can see, it is having an effect on the questions we are being asked. Above all in the search for what is concealed ( the future) the reason it is concealed is that it takes more than just accepting what you are told to find.

Here is what we must confront. If, as some on my side of the agw issue claim, it is NOT what I am suspecting, Geothermal input, then what is it? Granted in the entire geological history, this may not be remarkable, but we could not observe it as it happened before, It most certainly is happening now in the time scale frame that due to non-science-based stimulus, is turning this into a runaway train for a policy that could help destroy the foundational values o this country.  If it is not from below, then it is from above? It cant just “happen”. And if it is from above, then the people pushing co2 as the cause of the warming, certainly have an argument, but then comes the So What? aspect. If it is warming and in past years this was a climate optimum, so what? Adapt and move on.

To my fellow meteorologists — think. Think about your basic courses and what the implication of warming is to your forecast due to feedback that have to be amplified in some places, but DEAMPLIFIED in others. That’s right, there is evidence of countering that in a rational world would be considered positive ( and make your job more boring).  You can’t just go on TV and say it’s all climate change and it is getting worse. You have to look for the unmoved mover, for your answer is there.

For others. Do you really want to spend what is estimated to be close to 300 trillion dollars by 2050 to convert to a system that currently forces us to rely on unsavory sources and methods that have a much shorter lifespan than fossil fuel supply? At the very least question authority now, before it’s too late to even have the chance.

• Joe Bastardi

  Joe Bastardi is a pioneer in extreme weather and long-range forecasting. He is the author of “The Climate Chronicles: Inconvenient Revelations You Won’t Hear From Al Gore — and Others” which you can purchase at the CFACT bookstore. His new book The Weaponization of Weather in the Phony Climate war can be found here. phonyclimatewar.com

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