Electrical utility storage batteries are not unique, and all are built with the same underlying architecture. For example, the latest/most powerful Tesla battery, 102KWh, is made up of about 8,200 individual batteries, each a bit larger than a standard A-A. They are bundled and sealed into a subunit with a cooling system added for safety. Eight or 12 or any number of these subunits are then stacked and connected to make up the required working units. This illustrative 102KWh Tesla battery measures about 7 foot by 4 foot by 7 inches and weighs about 1,200 lbs.
They are costly. For a typical application, say a 450 MW plant, and 1,500MWh, you would need about 16,000 of these Tesla batteries for a total battery weight of about 10,000 tons plus the housings, structures, connecting, and controlling equipment. Then depending on how they are used/cycled, they may need replacement every 3 to 4 years. If we assume 3.5 services years and a plant is designed for 25-year service life, a total of more than 110,000 of these batteries will be needed. Then comes the question, is Tesla using the Gillette model for the sale of the installation batteries, then make a fortune off the subsequent spare batteries?
Let’s do some arithmetic: using Tesla[xi] and IAEA data, table 5.1[xii] here’s what we get for the estimated 25 year life cycle cost (cost of equipment, installation plus fixed and variable operation and maintenance.).
We could provide the cost of electricity by about $2.5 Billion. Then, if we add the solar panel, the cost increases by a factor of two to $5 Billion. If we then add a battery backup, the cost goes up by more than three times to about $8 billion.
Let’s wrap up this insanity. For this one typical plant, we have more than tripled the cost of electricity so that batteries can be used as back up to solar power for a few hours per day. Our industry leaders have doubled-tripled their sales, our politicians got re-elected, our delusional do-gooders are feeling noble, and what did we get for it?
· Maybe, a 0 % reduction in fossil fuel burned
· Maybe, a 0 % reduction in CO2 and pollution
· We lost about 3,000 to 4,000 acres of farmlands and wilderness
· We have increased the strip-mines by a factor of 10
· We have increased the environmental damage, reduced public safety, and increased toxicity risk by a factor of 10, or more?
Why? Why the wasted money
Why? The destroyed environment
Why? The increased health and safety risks
Why? Why?
We have all witnessed gigantic cost over runs on government projects, but overrunning the cost 8 fold may be a record. We are quite certain of our numbers.
‘’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’
FOR THOSE OF YOU WONDERING HOW WE ARRIVED AT OUR FIGURES
Here are the back up cost estimates
– Cost of fossil plant $2.5 Billion, baseline costs
– Cost of solar plant $2.5Billion,
– Cost of batteries $3.0 Billion
Total $8.0 Billion
– Cost of Battery system; We start with a necessary solar plant, at about $130/KWh per KWh, and 1,500,000 KWh – the cost of capital is about $195$ Mil plus 6.15 spares for a total cost of about $1.2 Billion
-When we now add the cost of the battery plant, controls, and management system, and maintenance for 25 years, and demolition costs, estimate a total cost of $2.5 to $3.5 Billion, use $3.0 Billion.
– Now add the cost of a solar PV plant[xiii] , at $2,650 per KW, ($1.2 Billion) plus installation, and O & M estimate a total $ 25-year life cycle cost and demolition of about $2.5 Billion
– Cost of a combined cycle gas plant: [xiv] at $1,000 $/KW, estimate cost at $0.45 Billion plus fixed and variable O&M for 25 years; approximately $2.0 Billion, for a total of about $2.5 Billion.
– The total life cycle cost for a combined cycle plant is $2. 5 Billion, then to save about 3.5 hours/day of operation, we add a solar plant, and costs increase to $5 Billion with practically no reduction in O&M cost of CO2 or pollution.
– Then add a battery system as a backup and service, we add another $3 Billion for a total cost of about $ 8.0 Billion.
– Increase the cost of electricity by a factor of 8/2.5= about three times with no significant reduction in CO2, pollution, or fossil fuel.
We have all witnessed gigantic cost over runs on government projects, but overrunning the cost eight fold might be a record. We know of what we speak.
[i] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stand-alone_power_system
[ii] [ii] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-23/explosions-are-threatening-lithium-ion-s-edge-in-a-battery-race
[iii] https://search.yahoo.comhttps://search.yahoo.com/search?fr=mcafee&type=E211US105G0&p=south+korean+starage+battery+accidents/search?fr=mcafee&type=E211US105G0&p=south+korean+starage+battery+accidents
[iv] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-swiss-tesla-crash-idUSKCN1IH25G
[v] https://hardware.slashdot.org/story/19/06/29/0144251/massive-lithium-ion-battery-fireexplosion-shows-challenges-of-renewable-energy-storage
[vi] http://www.hazardexonthenet.net/article/171930/Lithium-ion-Battery-Energy-Storage-Systems-The-risks-and-how-to-manage-them.aspx
[vii] https://hearinghealthmatters.org/theaudiologycondition/2017/hearing-aid-batteries-still-threat-use-caution/
[viii] http://www.benzoenergy.com/blog/post/how-to-design-the-internal-structure-of-a-safe-lithium-battery.html
[ix] http://large.stanford.edu/courses/2016/ph240/sheu2/
[x] https://batteryuniversity.com/learn/archive/lithium_ion_safety_concerns
[xi] https://insideevs.com/news/400529/tesla-battery-costs-dropping/
[xii] https://cleantechnica.com/2018/06/09/100-kwh-tesla-battery-cells-this-year-100-kwh-tesla-battery-packs-in-2020/
[xiii] https://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/powerplants/capitalcost/pdf/capcost_assumption.pdf , Table 1
[xiv] https://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/powerplants/capitalcost/pdf/capcost_assumption.pdf , Table 1
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